NBA Draft 2020: Mock Draft Trade Package Analyses

Contributed by Aditya Fuldeore

2020 pick value chart created factoring in trades in previous years, values are rough estimates of what value a pick may add this year (mix in rumors of “weaker draft”, minimal contact with prospects to evaluate them due to COVID-19). Of course, pick value is relative and depends on preference.

PickValuePickValuePickValuePickValuePickValue
1500728013175191102575
2430826014160201002670
338092401515021952765
4340102201614022902860
5320112051713023852955
6300121901812024803050
PickValuePickValuePickValuePickValuePickValue
31483736432449165510
3246383444225015569
3344393245205114578
3442403046195213587
3540412847185312596
3638422648175411605

New Orleans PELICANS trade Jrue Holiday and pick #13 to Atlanta HAWKS for Dewayne Dedmon and pick #6

Pelicans:

  • Gain Dedmon’s 
    • 0 Win Shares(-1 Off, 1 Def)
      • (0.1 Win Shares(-0.2 Off, 0.3 Def) in 10 games with Atlanta)
    • 17.6 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 0.5 APG 
      • (23.3 MPG, 8.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 0.7 APG in 10 games with Atlanta)
    • $13.33 million next year, $13.33 million year after that
  • Gain value of 300 for pick 6

Hawks: 

  • Gain Holiday’s
    • 3.9 Win Shares(2 Off, 1.9 Def)
    • 34.7 MPG, 19.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 6.7 APG
    • $26.13 million next year, $27.02 million player option year after that
  • Gain value of 175 for pick 13

Pelicans Overall: [Adding Dedmon’s overall season stats]

  • -3.9 Win Shares(-3 Off, -0.9 Def)
  • -17.1 MPG, -13.3 PPG, +0.9 RPG, -6.2 APG
  • About +$12.8 million in cap space next year (Cap hit decrease from $83.2 million to $70.4 million for 2020-2021), +$13.69 million year after
  • +125 value in 2020 picks (swap 13 for 6)

New Orleans loses Win Shares, free up minutes, lose points and assists, but add little rebounds. They free up money for the next two years and add more pick value for the upcoming draft.

Hawks Overall: [Subtracting Dedmon’s stats with just the Hawks]

  • +3.8 Win Shares(+2.2 Off, +1.6 Def)
  • +11.4 MPG, +11 PPG, -3.4 RPG, +6 APG
  • About -$12.8 million in cap space next year (Cap hit increase from $59.4 million to $72.2 million for 2020-2021), -$13.69 million lost in cap the year after
  • -125 value in 2020 picks (trade 6 for 13)

The Hawks add win shares, need to carve out more playing time, add more points and assists, but lose rebounds. They take a higher cap hit for the next two years but have plenty of cap to absorb it. Lastly, they lose pick value to gain a solid veteran in Holiday.

3 – Team Deal:

Dallas MAVERICKS receive Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, DET 2024 2nd

Golden State WARRIORS receive Derrick Rose, Seth Curry, DET 7th overall pick, DET 2022 protected 1st

Detroit PISTONS receive Tim Hardaway Jr., GSW 2nd overall pick, DAL 2024 2nd 

Mavericks:

  • Gain Wiggins’
    • 1.9 Win Shares(0.8 Off, 1.1 Def) 
      • (0.5 Win Shares(0.2 Off, 0.3 Def) in 12 games with the Warriors)
    • 34.4 MPG, 21.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.7 APG
      • (33.6 MPG, 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.6 APG in 12 games with the Warriors)
    • $29.54 million next year, 2 years/$65.2 million after that ($31.6 million, $33.6 million)
  • Gain Poole’s 
    • -1.2 Win Shares(-1.6 Off, 0.4 Def)
    • 22.4 MPG, 8.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.4 APG
    • $2.06 million next year, team options for $2.1 million, $3.9 million in following 2 years
  • Gain DET 2024 2nd rounder

Warriors:

  • Gain Rose’s
    • 2.5 Win Shares(1.8 Off, 0.7 Def)
    • 26 MPG, 18.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 5.6 APG
    • $7.68 million next year
  • Gain Curry’s
    • 4.3 Win Shares(3.5 Off, 0.8 Def)
    • 24.6 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.9 APG
    • $7.81 million next year, 2 years/$16.74 million after that ($8.19 million, $8.55 million)
  • Gain value of 280 for pick 7, future 2022 DET protected 1st round pick

Pistons:

  • Gain Hardaway’s 
    • 4.5 Win Shares(3.4 Off, 1.1 Def)
    • 29.5 MPG, 15.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.9 APG
    • $18.98 million (player option)
  • Gain value of 430 for pick 2, DAL 2024 2nd rounder

Mavericks Overall: [Adding Wiggins’ overall 2019-2020 stats]

  • -8.1 Win Shares(-7.7 Off, -0.4 Def)
  • +2.7 MPG, +2.4 PPG, +1.6 RPG, +2.3 APG
  • About -$4.81 million in cap space next year (Cap hit increase from $108.22 million to $113.03 million for 2020-2021), -$25.51 million year after, -$28.95 million year after that (including Poole’s team options)
  • +future 2024 DET 2nd round pick, -future 2024 2nd round pick

Dallas loses Win Shares and gains minutes, but also gains more points, rebounds, and assists. They take a higher cap hit and lose a future 2nd rounder while adding another future 2nd. Dallas adds more long-term potential with Wiggins overall, while trading Hardaway’s expiring contract.

Warriors Overall: [Subtracting Wiggins’ stats with just the Warriors]

  • +7.5 Wins Shares(+6.7 Off, +0.8 Def)
  • -5.4 MPG, +2.3 PPG, -2 RPG, +1.5 APG
  • About +$16.11 million freed in cap space next year (Cap hit decrease from $148.88 million to $132.77 million for 2020-2021), +$25.51 million year after, +28.95 year after that
  • -150 in 2020 pick value, +2022 protected DET 1st round pick

The Warriors add win shares, free up minutes, add a few points and assists, but lose a couple rebounds. They free up a lot of cap space this year, and the 2 years after that, while trading back in the 2020 draft and adding a future protected 1st from Detroit.

Pistons Overall: 

  • +2 Win Shares(+1.6 Off, +0.4 Def)
  • +3.5 MPG, -2.3 PPG, +0.9 RPG, -3.7 APG
  • -$11.3 million in cap space (Cap hit increases from $71.94 million to $83.24 million for 2020-2021)
  • +150 in 2020 pick value, -future 2022 protected 1st, -future 2024 2nd, +future DAL 2024 2nd

Boston CELTICS trade pick #14, #30, and #47 to San Antonio SPURS for pick #11, Chimezie Metu

Celtics:

  • Gain Metu’s 
    • 0.3 Win Shares(0.2 Off, 0.1 Def)
    • 5.8 MPG, 3.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 0.6 APG
    • $1.66 million
  • Gain pick value of 205 for pick 11 in 2020

Spurs:

  • Gain pick value of 160 for pick 14, 50 for pick 30, 18 for pick 47

Celtics Overall:

  • 0.3 Win Shares(0.2 Off, 0.1 Def)
  • +5.8 MPG, +3.2 PPG, +1.8 RPG, +0.6 APG
  • -$1.66 million in cap space next year (Cap hit increases from $140.57 million to $142.23 million for 2020-2021)
  • -23 in 2020 pick value

The Celtics gain a little production in terms of Win Shares, minutes, points, rebounds, and assists. They take a slightly higher cap hit for 2020-2021. They also lose a little pick value, but can take a player they really like with the higher pick.

Spurs Overall:

  • -0.3 Win Shares(0.2 Off, 0.1 Def)
  • -5.8 MPG, -3.2 PPG, -1.8 RPG, -0.6 APG
  • +$1.66 million in cap space next year (Cap hit decreases from $120.36 million to $118.7 million for 2020-2021)
  • +23 in 2020 pick value

The Spurs slightly lose production in terms of Win Shares, points, rebounds, and assists, but free up the small number of minutes. They also save a little money for 2020-2021. Lastly, they exchange picks, gaining some pick value for 2020.

*Caveats: Win Shares are partially a reflection of a team’s success as well. Metu, Wiggins and Dedmon only have small sample sizes with their teams.

*Information from Basketball Reference

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